May 27, 2025
BMRI 4M25

Market Commentary
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As of May 1st to May 26th, 2025, Indonesia's top five stocks by foreign net buy are dominated by the banking sector, comprising four bank stocks: BBRI, BBCA, BMRI and BRIS. The only non-bank stock in the top five is ANTM, coming in third.

This marks a significant turnaround from the recent trend earlier in the year, when the JCI experienced consistent foreign outflows amid global uncertainties and domestic monetary tightening concerns. The strong return of foreign interest, especially in major banking stocks, reflects growing investor confidence in Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability and the resilience of its financial sector.

Foreign Buy Summary


In our view, BMRI is currrently one of the stocks which investors need to have exposure to considering its valuation, index weight, and overall attractiveness to foreign investor. 

For 4M25, BMRI reported earnings that were broadly in line with expectations, recording a modest YoY net profit growth of 1% to IDR 15.2tn. However, results in April were softer, primarily due to a significant increase in operating expenses.

BMRI currently trades at a fair valuation, yet remains below its 5 years mean PBV, giving investor lucrative upside by riding the wave of momentum.
 

Loan growth decelerated as expected to +15% YoY, with YTD growth flat and momentum likely to slow further toward our 9% full-year projection (vs. 10-12% growth guidance). 

NIM continued to decline due to persistently elevated funding costs, despite early indications of easing liquidity conditions. Funding growth remained heavily concentrated in time deposits, which increased by 23% YoY, whereas CASA posted a more moderate growth of 12% YoY.

We maintain our 2025F earnings estimates at Rp57.4tn (+3% yoy) and reiterate BUY with a TP of Rp7,100, implying 1.9x forward PB.


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