20 April 2026
Bull on BULL
Market Commentary
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Given how rapidly conditions have shifted, investors may now be better served by assuming that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, rather than treating such an outcome as a low-probability tail risk. The speed and scale of recent developments suggest that earlier baseline assumptions may no longer be reliable, increasing the risk of negative surprises for portfolios positioned for a swift normalization.
Accordingly, markets may need to begin pricing in the broader consequences of a sustained disruption, particularly the prospect of higher energy prices, tighter global liquidity conditions, and renewed inflationary pressures. Incorporating these risks proactively could prove more prudent than reacting after the market has already repriced.
The disruption has also driven tanker charter rates sharply higher. Aframax daily charter rates have reportedly risen from around USD35k/day in October to roughly USD70k/day currently, reflecting tighter vessel availability, sanctions-related fleet constraints, and heightened geopolitical risk premiums.
BULL is likely to be one of the more direct listed beneficiaries of the recent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as its oil tanker fleet operates on international routes and is largely exposed to the spot market rather than fixed long-term contracts. This allows the company to capture higher charter rates more quickly when freight markets tighten.
Because vessel operating costs are relatively fixed, a large portion of the increase in spot charter rates can flow directly into margins and net profit. As a result, even a temporary period of elevated rates could materially enhance BULL’s near-term earnings profile and cash generation.
Beyond this cyclical upside, BULL is also pursuing diversification into LNG carriers, FPSO/FSO, and FSRU projects. These segments could gradually add longer-duration recurring income streams, while the current tanker market strength provides an immediate earnings tailwind and potential catalyst for valuation re-rating.
Accordingly, markets may need to begin pricing in the broader consequences of a sustained disruption, particularly the prospect of higher energy prices, tighter global liquidity conditions, and renewed inflationary pressures. Incorporating these risks proactively could prove more prudent than reacting after the market has already repriced.
The disruption has also driven tanker charter rates sharply higher. Aframax daily charter rates have reportedly risen from around USD35k/day in October to roughly USD70k/day currently, reflecting tighter vessel availability, sanctions-related fleet constraints, and heightened geopolitical risk premiums.
BULL is likely to be one of the more direct listed beneficiaries of the recent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, as its oil tanker fleet operates on international routes and is largely exposed to the spot market rather than fixed long-term contracts. This allows the company to capture higher charter rates more quickly when freight markets tighten.
Because vessel operating costs are relatively fixed, a large portion of the increase in spot charter rates can flow directly into margins and net profit. As a result, even a temporary period of elevated rates could materially enhance BULL’s near-term earnings profile and cash generation.
JCI VS BULL YTD Performance (normalized, factor 100)
Beyond this cyclical upside, BULL is also pursuing diversification into LNG carriers, FPSO/FSO, and FSRU projects. These segments could gradually add longer-duration recurring income streams, while the current tanker market strength provides an immediate earnings tailwind and potential catalyst for valuation re-rating.
Written by Boris, the Broker
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