Indonesia’s economic growth in 1Q26 is likely to be supported by the seasonal momentum of Lunar New Year and Ramadan/Eid, which historically drive a significant increase in household consumption—the largest contributor to GDP. Higher spending on food and beverages, staple goods, processed products, and holiday-related activities is expected to help keep growth resilient despite ongoing global uncertainties.

This momentum is further reinforced by a structural recovery in purchasing power heading into 2026, particularly across middle- to lower-income segments, supported by a 5–7% minimum wage increase and government programs. The MBG program (potentially absorbing up to 1.5 million workers and reducing food expenses by ~Rp400,000 per child per month) is expected to lift disposable income. This is reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which rose from 115 (Sep 2025) to 123.5 (Dec 2025), signaling improving consumer sentiment.

In this context, INDF is strategically positioned to capture festive-driven demand, supported by its strong nationwide distribution network and exposure to staple food categories. Its defensive business profile should help sustain sales growth and margin stability throughout 2026 amid seasonal and structural tailwinds.
 

We project net profit of Rp11.3tn in 2026F and Rp11.8tn in 2027F (up 7% and 6%, respectively), supported by broad segment performance and a favorable macro backdrop. Improving household cash flow is expected to translate into higher staple volumes, reinforcing earnings momentum into 2026–27F.