Over the past year, nickel prices have experienced a notable decline and subsequent stabilization. From late 2024 highs above USD 18,000 per ton, prices trended sharply lower, bottoming near USD 14,500 before recovering modestly and settling into a relatively narrow trading range around USD 15,000–15,500.

This movement has largely been driven by concerns over oversupply, particularly from Indonesia, which has rapidly expanded its smelting and refining capacity, making it the world’s largest nickel producer. At the same time, slower-than-expected demand growth from the electric vehicle (EV) sector and stainless steel industry has kept buying momentum subdued. Geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating global growth expectations added volatility, but the overall picture has been one of supply-driven downward pressure, offset by a floor of long-term optimism tied to EV battery demand.

In short, nickel’s performance over the past year reflects a market caught between strong supply expansion and weaker short-term demand, leaving prices consolidating at lower levels despite a structurally bullish long-term narrative.

LME Nickel Price per Ton

MBMA reported revenue of USD 262mn in 2Q25 (+29% qoq, -45% yoy), bringing 6M25 revenue to USD 628mn (-32% yoy). The company achieved a turnaround with USD 9mn earnings in 2Q25, supported by margin gains in the NPI and limonite segments. This lifted 6M25 earnings to $86mn (-71% yoy), equal to 23% of both our forecast and consensus. With sales volumes expected to improve, further margin expansion looks likely.

Stronger margins came from lower cash costs and higher volumes. NPI, MBMA’s main segment, posted a 129% qoq EBITDA increase to $43mn as cash costs dropped 10%. Limonite also delivered, with a 125% qoq jump in cash margin, contributing $17mn EBITDA in 6M25.

  
Free Cash Flow (mn USD)                                                                     Nickel Mine Cash Margin

MBMA’s share price has surged sharply in recent months, reaching around 620, while the LME nickel price as shown previously above, has remained relatively flat near USD 15,000/ton. This divergence highlights a widening gap, suggesting that MBMA’s strong equity performance which was driven by company-specific factors such as margin recovery and earnings turnaround, might have been priced-in.

MBMA's Share Price Vs. LME Nickel Price Performance

Our MBMA's SOTP-based target price is IDR 710 per share which was reached a few days ago. Although the company has demonstrated a notable turnaround, we believe the stock has reached its fair intrinsic value. We will reassess our target price should there be clear signs of a recovery in nickel prices or stronger-than-expected sales growth.