14 April 2026
Not a Time to Wait, It Is Time to Act

Market Commentary
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Yesterday should have been the answer, not the question. The correction in the JCI was an invitation, not an alarm. Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 and JCI have shown a fairly strong correlation during global risk on phases, where an expansionary Wall Street drives capital flows into emerging markets, including Indonesia, lifting domestic equities alongside global liquidity. What happened yesterday was not a signal of trend reversal, but a small part of a broader cycle that is still in play, meaning those waiting for a perfect price today may end up chasing at much higher levels.
 


In the United States, equity markets are currently supported by strong structural catalysts. Wall Street is preparing for two major IPOs, SpaceX with a target valuation of up to 1.75 trillion US dollars, and Anthropic with a potential valuation approaching 380 billion US dollars. In addition, Meta has signaled confidence through an executive incentive program tied to a 9 trillion US dollar market cap target by 2031. Overall, this reflects that institutional support for US equities remains firmly in place in the near term.
 


As the US maintains global liquidity through its IPO pipeline and strong corporate confidence, Indonesia also benefits from this dynamic. Institutional flows into Wall Street help sustain risk appetite, which then extends into emerging markets with relatively solid fundamentals. In this context, Indonesia is supported by a more balanced current account, solid foreign reserves, and a continuing downstream industrialization story. The recent JCI correction reflects short term global pressure rather than any meaningful shift in the structural investment case for Indonesia.

For positioning, our analysts favor BBCA, WIFI, and EXCL as strong buys at current levels. BBCA remains a top pick given its consistently strong balance sheet, supported by asset quality, CASA ratio, and operational efficiency. WIFI is attractive from a digital infrastructure growth perspective, while EXCL offers upside from ongoing industry consolidation that has yet to be fully priced in. In addition, for momentum plays, we believe companies like BREN, BRPT, and CBDK are expected to join the rally driven by the S&P 500 catalyst. These are favorites among retail investors, and their company owners can be considered behemoth businessmen in Indonesia. The message is clear, the best entry point was yesterday. Today is no longer about waiting for price, but about having the conviction to take position.

Written by Boris, the Broker
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