24 February 2026
Positioned for a Stronger Earnings Recovery
Market Commentary
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Stronger seasonal demand during the holiday period, alongside the realization of BTL (Bantuan Langsung Tunai) and THR disbursements, is expected to drive a solid 4Q25 performance. The packaged food segment remains the key earnings anchor, while a gradual recovery in beverages is beginning to take shape. Although margins were pressured earlier in the year due to elevated raw material costs, the latest quarter marks a clearer sequential rebound and sets a firmer base heading into 2026. Against this backdrop, MYOR stands to benefit meaningfully from the improving operating environment.
The outlook for 2026–27F is increasingly constructive, supported by improving domestic purchasing power and stabilizing input costs. Revenue is projected to reach Rp42 trillion and Rp46 trillion (+10% yoy), with net profit recovering to Rp3.4 trillion (+24% yoy) and Rp4.0 trillion (+20% yoy). Net profit margins are expected to expand to 8%–8.7% (vs. 7.1% in 2025F), reflecting easing commodity pressures and stronger operating leverage.
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On the balance sheet side, disciplined capex of around Rp1.0 trillion in FY25–26F should sustain solid free cash flow generation ahead of the planned capacity expansion in 2029F. This measured capital cycle enhances financial flexibility and supports a gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio toward 45%, implying potential dividend yield approaching 5% over the medium term.
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With margin recovery gaining traction, strengthening top-line momentum, and resilient cash flow generation, earnings visibility is improving meaningfully. We therefore maintain our Buy recommendation with a target price of Rp2,910 (19.4x FY26 PER), implying around 30% upside. The recent share price pullback provides a compelling entry point ahead of a broader and more sustained earnings recovery.
Written by Boris, the Broker
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