Indonesia’s AI theme is increasingly becoming investable, with copper at the center of the structural demand story. AI infrastructure is adding to demand from electrification, grid expansion, and EVs, with global data-center copper demand projected to more than double from 1.1Mt in 2025 to 2.5Mt by 2040. Meanwhile, long-term supply remains constrained as aging mines and limited new capacity make it increasingly difficult for supply to keep pace with demand.

The recent record-high LME copper prices further reinforce the positive backdrop, supported by potential US tariffs, production disruptions in South America, and rising demand from data centers, renewables, and power grids. While near-term consolidation is possible, we remain constructive on the broader copper outlook.

We reiterate AMMN as our preferred Indonesian copper exposure. Phase 8 is expected to drive a sharp recovery in production, with 2026F copper-in-concentrate output reaching 485mn lbs, up 113% YoY, alongside 579k oz of gold. Higher ore grades and the new concentrator should support a significant recovery from the 2025 transition year, while downstream integration through the 900ktpa smelter provides additional upside.

The key attraction is AMMN’s exposure to both a production-driven earnings recovery and a structurally stronger copper price environment. We maintain a BUY rating with a Rp9,000 SOTP-based target price. At 26.5x/16.5x 2026–27F P/E, we believe the premium is justified by strong production growth and exposure to a tightening copper market. Key risks include slower Phase 8 execution, smelter ramp-up delays, and weaker copper and gold prices.