29 April 2026
Markets Turn Cautious as Uncertainty Persists

Market Commentary
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Geopolitical developments remain in focus as Iran proposed a new framework to de-escalate tensions, including halting attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal, delivered to regional mediators, signals a potential pathway to ease tensions, although it is conditional on a full cessation of conflict and the lifting of blockades by United States. While still uncertain, this introduces a more balanced risk outlook for global markets.

Amid this backdrop, global investors continue to adopt a risk-off stance, with portfolio reallocation favoring fixed income over equities in search of more stable returns. This trend is also reflected domestically, where Indonesia recorded a foreign net sell of US$118.5 million, marking the largest outflow in the past month and extending a four-day streak of capital outflows. The shift underscores cautious positioning as investors navigate elevated volatility.

Looking ahead, market attention will turn to upcoming policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. However, forward guidance—particularly around inflation—will be key in shaping near-term sentiment. With a long weekend ahead, markets may see profit-taking pressure, raising the risk of short-term correction.

Overall, while geopolitical developments may offer a potential easing narrative, near-term market conditions are likely to remain fragile and headline-driven. In this environment, maintaining a selective and defensive approach remains key, with focus on liquidity and resilience as markets digest both global and domestic uncertainties.

Written by Boris, the Broker
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