Global sentiment stayed fragile, with Asia's semiconductor rout continuing to weigh on risk appetite, even as reports of a possible 10-day US-Iran ceasefire offered some relief, softening the US dollar and easing the oil-driven risk aversion that's dogged markets since the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That easing dollar backdrop is doing real work for Indonesia: the rupiah strengthened to around Rp17,940, supported by the ceasefire optimism and growing expectations surrounding the new Pusat Keuangan Internasional Indonesia (PFII) financial hub plan.

But the domestic picture isn't unambiguously clean. In a Bloomberg interview, Moody's Martin Petch said the balance of risks for Indonesia has turned "a little bit more negative" since the agency revised its outlook to negative in February, citing higher energy subsidy spending due to the Iran conflict and the resulting pressure on Indonesia's fiscal position. While today's equity rally and rupiah recovery are encouraging, the risk of a sovereign rating downgrade remains, particularly if fiscal deficits widen, the rupiah weakens further, or pressure on SOEs increases.

Against that mixed macro backdrop, TPIA remains the standout in equities, rising 9% while recording the largest foreign inflow (Rp349.3bn) as investors rotated from Korean and Taiwanese semiconductor stocks into Indonesian value plays. This suggests that stock-specific domestic catalysts, attractive valuations, and sector rotation continue to support selected Indonesian equities despite lingering macro risks.

Looking ahead, investors should continue monitoring whether Moody's concerns begin to translate into higher bond yields or renewed rupiah weakness. So far, equities have outperformed ahead of macro confirmation, but the sustainability of the rally will likely depend on improvements in Indonesia's fiscal outlook and sovereign credit sentiment.