Global sentiment remained mixed as investors continued to question whether heavy AI spending will translate into stronger corporate earnings, while geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East also kept markets cautious. With several key catalysts, including US payrolls data and upcoming corporate earnings, markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term.
 

Against this backdrop, Indonesia's macro data continued to surprise on the upside. July inflation came in below market expectations, providing Bank Indonesia with greater flexibility to maintain its policy rate, while June's trade deficit narrowed significantly as exports recovered. More importantly, nickel exports surged 69.3% YoY, indicating that demand from China remains resilient despite Indonesia's tighter export regulations.

The stronger trade data also reinforced optimism toward Indonesia's mining sector. Coal and mining stocks outperformed, led by INDY, MDKA, and ADMR, as investors responded positively to the continued recovery in commodity exports. The resilience of both coal and nickel exports suggests external demand remains supportive despite ongoing global uncertainties.
 

Among the sector, ADMR remains one of our preferred names. Beyond the supportive commodity backdrop, the company's aluminum smelter project is expected to become an additional growth driver as it ramps up toward full capacity by 4Q26. With global aluminum prices remaining elevated amid supply disruptions, we believe the project provides meaningful long-term earnings upside while further diversifying ADMR's business profile.