The United States has recently pushed forward a revised peace framework aimed at ending the war between Ukraine and Russia, shifting from the earlier 28-point draft—which many criticized as too favorable to Moscow—to a slimmer 19-point proposal that better reflects Ukraine’s security concerns. Kyiv has signaled readiness to engage with this updated plan, which reportedly softens territorial concessions and includes clearer security guarantees. Negotiations are ongoing, and while the diplomatic momentum is real, conditions on the ground remain tense as Russia continues strikes even during talks, underscoring how fragile the process is.

Meanwhile, Russia has deployed a major general, Oleg Makarevich, to Venezuela to train Venezuelan forces and help with intelligence and UAV operations. This isn’t just symbolic: there are over 120 Russian personnel in Venezuela, and Moscow is helping Caracas monitor internal factions and foreign threats. Meanwhile, Venezuela is seeking deeper military cooperation with Russia, China, and Iran — asking for radars, missiles, drones, and other systems to counter what Maduro describes as U.S. “imperial threats.” 
 

Under current geopolitical uncertainty, brent crude and coal prices are likely to stay soft as global demand remains sluggish and supply continues to expand, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers. Currently the market tone remains bearish unless a major disruption occurs. Even with the potential easing of tensions in Europe from a Ukraine–Russia peace framework, Russia’s expanding footprint in Venezuela and other oil-linked regions suggests global crude supply will remain abundant, limiting any meaningful price rebound.

CPO, meanwhile, sits in a more balanced but volatile environment. Weak global growth still pressures prices, yet steady food demand and strong biodiesel mandates in producing countries help prevent a sharp collapse. Palm oil also remains price-competitive versus soybean oil, offering some support. Overall, while Brent and coal lean toward further softness, CPO may hold relatively firmer — but all three commodities will continue reacting quickly to geopolitical shifts, supply adjustments, and policy decisions across major producing countries.

Brent Crued Oil (blue), Coal (white), and CPO (orange) Prices

Gold remains the strongest commodity in today’s volatile environment because it thrives on uncertainty. With global tensions—from shifting Russia–West dynamics to Middle East risks and signs of financial-system stress—investors are seeking safety over cyclical exposure. Unlike oil or coal, which depend on demand that weakens in uncertain times, gold gains value precisely when fear rises. Strong central-bank buying further reinforces its long-term support.

At the same time, falling real yields and easing interest-rate expectations reduce the cost of holding gold, making it an even more attractive hedge. While other commodities struggle with oversupply, weak demand, or policy risk, gold stands out as the cleanest defensive play. In short, it is the one commodity that reliably holds or grows in value when both inflation and recession risks coexist—exactly the backdrop markets face today.