Happy fasting to those who observe; may the blessings of this holy month accompany all your activities and investment decisions!

Following yesterday's market movement, the index has finally begun to show positive signals through a convincing rebound after facing recent pressure. This upward momentum aligns with the surge in economic activity at the start of Ramadan, where investor focus typically shifts toward sectors that benefit most from the spike in household consumption ahead of Eid al-Fitr.

Historically, this period serves as a primary stage for the consumer sector due to increased spending on food staples. This phenomenon is more than just seasonal; it is a fundamental catalyst driving significant sales volume growth, further supported by holiday allowances (THR) and increased mobility.

(the seasonal impact of the festive season in 1Q and the holiday season in 4Q on stock performance.)

In this context, our analysis identifies PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR) as a top pick within the consumer sector. MYOR is projected to be a major beneficiary of recovering domestic purchasing power, supported by a downtrend in input costs for key raw materials like coffee and cocoa, which is expected to strengthen profit margins. Additionally, with approximately 42% of its sales derived from exports, MYOR possesses a natural hedge against Rupiah fluctuations. 
 

To complement this consumer strategy, we also favor PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF), which maintains strong exposure to Indonesia's mass-market consumption recovery. INDF's performance is supported by an improving purchasing power outlook for mid-to-lower income segments, bolstered by government programs and minimum wage adjustments that enhance household cash flow visibility. Beyond volume-led recovery in staple products like instant noodles, INDF also benefits from sustained tailwinds in its agribusiness segment due to elevated CPO prices. 

Current price levels represent a strategic entry point before the peak of Lebaran shopping enthusiasm is fully reflected in stock valuations. We invite you to capitalize on this momentum in the consumer sector to optimize your portfolio returns.