After a relatively quiet period, Vale Indonesia (INCO) finally delivered some exciting news. In the third quarter, its net profit nearly doubled to US$27 million, driven by the resumption of nickel ore sales and a sharp margin improvement from 4.8% to 16%. Nickel matte production also increased, signaling stronger operational momentum.
 

What makes this recovery more interesting is that it came while global nickel prices stayed volatile. This suggests that INCO’s earnings improvement was not only price-driven but also supported by better efficiency and tighter cost control. It shows the company’s growing resilience in facing commodity cycles.

Looking ahead, momentum is expected to continue into the next quarter. The first batch of ore sales has already been completed, and production should remain steady in Q4. The HPAL project expansion could also become a major growth driver, potentially lifting production capacity from 2 million tons in 2026 to 10 million in 2027, and even up to 30 million tons in the coming years.
 

With improving fundamentals and stronger exposure to the EV supply chain, our analyst reiterates a Buy call on INCO with a target price of IDR 7,500, as the company is well-positioned to benefit from Indonesia’s nickel downstream growth story.