Ever noticed how Alfamart feels busier these days? You’re not the only one noticing. Indonesia’s downtrading wave is gaining momentum as consumers tighten their budgets and shift from modern supermarkets to more affordable minimarkets. In this environment, AMRT stands right in the sweet spot. Its 23,000+ outlets, deep reach into tier 2 and tier 3 regions, and wide SKU range make it perfectly positioned to capture everyday spending as shoppers seek convenience and value
 
The trend also reflects a broader behavioral shift. Consumers are becoming more selective, prioritizing essentials and small pack purchases. This benefits minimarkets like Alfamart, whose product mix is heavily skewed toward affordable FMCG items with high turnover. As spending habits normalize at lower price points, AMRT’s defensive model shines through.
 

The Rp900,000 cash aid (BLT) for 35 million low-income families in 4Q25 could be a real game changer for mass retail. Much of that money will likely flow straight into daily essentials — and that is exactly where Alfamart naturally wins. Each time the government injects consumption stimulus, minimarket traffic tends to surge, especially for fast-moving consumer goods and basic household items.
 

Combined with around Rp2.8 trillion in annual free cash flow, a net cash position since 2021, and a 35 percent dividend payout, AMRT stands on a solid financial footing to navigate any economic cycle.

Our analyst views AMRT as one of the few names that can stay resilient through all market phases. Earnings are projected to grow 13 percent YoY in 2025 and 15 percent in 2026, supported by steady expansion outside Java and disciplined cost management that keeps margins healthy. Rolling valuations to 2026F, our analyst reiterates a BUY with a higher TP of Rp3,000 (from Rp2,900), implying 30.7x forward PE.