29 August 2025
Being Cautious Amid The Inflow

Market Commentary
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The JCI has recently witnessed a notable turnaround in foreign investor sentiment. Previously, the market recorded a substantial net foreign outflow of IDR 15.2tn for the past 6 months, reflecting heightened selling pressure from overseas participants. However, this trend has since reversed, with the index now registering a net foreign inflow of IDR 8.7tn for the past month.

This shift indicates a renewed wave of confidence among foreign investors, suggesting that earlier concerns which drove the outflows—such as global monetary tightening, risk aversion, or domestic macroeconomic uncertainties—have begun to ease. 

The return of capital inflows underscores Indonesia’s relative attractiveness, supported by resilient corporate earnings, a more stable currency outlook, and expectations of a more accommodative monetary environment.
 
6 Months (left) and 1 Month (right) Net Foreign Flow

Meanwhile, tonight Indonesia is grieving the tragic incident that raised a deep concerns over public safety. Beyond its humanitarian impact, the event has cast a shadow on investor sentiment, as it underscores heightened security risks in the country which may . 

Such concerns may prompt investors to adopt a more cautious stance, potentially halting the recent momentum of foreign inflows into the JCI, as stability and security remain critical prerequisites for sustained capital investment.
 
Considering the recent developments, it may be prudent for investors to refrain from being overly aggressive in the current market environment. The combination of heightened security concerns and volatile foreign flows calls for a more cautious approach. In this context, adopting a defensive stance appears wise, with investors advised to focus on quality names. 

One option worth considering is BBCA, which currently trades at -2 SD of its 5 years PBV band. Its strong fundamentals and resilient business model make it a safer choice amid uncertainty, offering stability while the broader market sentiment remains fragile.
BBCA 5 Years PBV Band

We believe BBCA still offers a solid defensive stance while offers investor with lucrative upside at the same time, considering its latest strong result and recent share price decline. Regardless of different devensive stocks one might choose, we urge investors to remain cautious regarding domestic political situation.
 
Written by Boris, the Broker
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