Nickel prices remain volatile amid quota uncertainty and softer EV demand, but we believe the long-term setup remains supportive. With nickel prices still around US$17,000/t, supply discipline could tighten the market further, while MBMA's USD-linked earnings provide additional resilience against rupiah weakness.

MBMA is entering its harvesting phase as its integrated nickel platform moves toward full capacity. Higher utilization across its HPAL, matte and AIM operations should unlock operating leverage, improve profitability and support stronger cash generation as production ramps up.

The improvement in cash flow is becoming increasingly visible, with FCF expected to rise significantly through 2028F. Stronger cash generation should give MBMA greater flexibility to deleverage, reinvest and improve shareholder returns, while ROIC and ROE are also expected to improve meaningfully as the business matures.

Even without a sharp nickel price recovery, company-specific execution provides another source of upside. Faster ramp-up across its downstream operations could reverse their current drag on earnings, while rising production volumes should increasingly translate into stronger group profitability.

Overall, our analyst see MBMA as a growth story increasingly supported by cash flow rather than just future expansion. With its integrated platform, rising production and USD-linked earnings, the company is well positioned to benefit as its assets move toward full utilization, providing a solid fundamental cushion against near-term nickel volatility.