IHSG extended its selling pressure, closing more than 3% lower on Tuesday, breaking below the psychological 5,000 level and its previous bottom. The decline reinforces the prevailing bearish momentum, with the 5,000 level now potentially acting as resistance. Market attention is also shifting toward next week’s MSCI rebalancing, which could add further volatility amid fragile investor sentiment. In the near term, market direction is likely to remain sensitive to foreign fund flows and developments surrounding the rebalancing.

Amid ongoing market pressure, 3Q26 corporate earnings have shown mixed performance, particularly across the mining and metals sectors. ADMR reported strong earnings growth, primarily supported by its aluminium business through KAI, which has become the company’s main revenue contributor. However, its coal business remained under pressure as extreme dry weather disrupted logistics and weighed on sales volumes. On a positive note, ADMR generated approximately US$203mn in positive FCF, reversing the negative position recorded in the previous quarter, supported by aluminium inventory monetization and lower capital expenditure following the completion of Phase I smelter construction. While its cash flow profile has improved, 2026–2028 earnings forecasts were revised downward due to lower expected coal sales volumes.

AMMN, meanwhile, demonstrated stronger earnings momentum as smelter operations continued to ramp up. The shift in sales mix from copper concentrate toward higher-value products, particularly copper cathode and refined gold, has become a key driver of improved profitability. This development has also supported higher copper sales-volume assumptions and upward revisions to its 2026 revenue and earnings forecasts. Nevertheless, adjustments to long-term commodity price assumptions highlight the company’s continued exposure to copper and gold price dynamics, as well as the sustainability of its smelter ramp-up.

Overall, the market is facing a growing divergence between weakening equity sentiment and relatively resilient corporate fundamentals among selected companies. ADMR and AMMN demonstrate how aluminium operations and higher-value metal products can support profitability, although both companies continue to face operational challenges and commodity price risks. However, solid corporate earnings have yet to translate into a broader recovery in market confidence. With the IHSG breaking below 5,000 and MSCI rebalancing approaching, we maintain a cautious near-term outlook. Investors should remain focused on earnings quality, cash flow generation, and balance sheet resilience, while monitoring signs of market stabilization and foreign fund flows before taking more aggressive positions.