The Indonesian telecommunications industry is entering a promising new chapter as major players pivot away from value-destructive price wars toward a more disciplined pricing strategy. Our analyst seeing a structural shift where operators are prioritizing profitability over aggressive market-share battles. This is evidenced by the industry's Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rising to Rp40.7k (+6% qoq) in 3Q25, signaling that the supply-side price wars are finally cooling down. As the market reaches saturation and SIM consolidation takes hold, the focus has shifted toward service value, creating a much healthier long-term outlook for the sector.

Amidst this positive industry backdrop, EXCL stands out as our analyst top pick with the most compelling upside potential. The primary catalyst is the realization of massive synergies from its merger, which is expected to be completed. These synergies are projected to unlock approximately US$400 million in value over the eight quarters following the merger, driven largely by operating expense efficiencies and the elimination of duplicate BTS infrastructure. Essentially, EXCL is streamlining its operations to become a significantly more efficient profit engine.

Beyond internal efficiencies, EXCL has substantial "runway" to increase its service pricing and boost revenue. Currently, EXCL’s ARPU sits at a relatively low base, partly due to dilution from FREN’s lower ARPU, which creates a clear path for normalization and future hikes. We forecast EXCL’s EBITDA to grow at an 8% CAGR over the next five years. With a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 12x, we estimate potential capital gains of ~24% per annum, complemented by a ~2% dividend yield, leading to an impressive total return of ~25% p.a..

Regarding recent market movements, the dip in EXCL’s share price following the deep correction in the IHSG is a rare "golden opportunity." This weakness is driven by broader market technicals rather than any deterioration in the company's strong fundamentals. Given the projected total return of ~25% per year through 2030, the current discounted price is an ideal entry point for accumulation. Now is the time to position portfolios in a stock that has the clearest path to earnings growth and valuation re-rating in the sector.