The United States is entering the third quarter of 2025 with a significant refinancing challenge, as the Treasury projects it will need to borrow around USD 1tn in net marketable debt between July and September, totalling around USD 9tn in total for FY2025 maturity.

This sharp increase reflects both a lower-than-expected cash balance and the fact that roughly one-third of publicly held marketable debt will mature within the next 12 months, requiring either repayment or refinancing. The scale of this upcoming maturity schedule underscores the urgency of keeping borrowing costs contained, particularly given the elevated level of interest rates.

At the same time, political pressure on the Federal Reserve is intensifying. Former President Donald Trump has been particularly vocal, repeatedly attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell and demanding aggressive rate cuts of up to 300bps. One of Trump’s most concrete steps has been the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Fed’s Board of Governors, a move widely seen as an effort to tilt monetary policy in favor of looser conditions.

US Treasury Maturity by Year

The United States is heading into 2025 with one of the largest refinancing challenges in its history. Roughly USD 9.2tn of Treasury securities—about one-third of all marketable debt—are set to mature this year, equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP. This “maturity wall” not only highlights the scale of America’s borrowing needs but also amplifies pressure on the Federal Reserve.

For emerging markets like Indonesia, the Fed’s eventual shift would have a direct spillover effect. As global capital flows adjust to lower U.S. yields, Bank Indonesia gains more room to cut its own policy rate without risking capital outflows or pressure on the rupiah. This dynamic was evident on the 20th of August, when Bank Indonesia reduced the BI7DRR by 25bps, signaling confidence that easing global monetary conditions can support domestic growth while keeping financial stability intact.

This move by BI may caught some investors by surprise as most analyst were anticipating for BI to hold its interes rate (only 9 of 39 economist expect another cut this month). 

Analyst Estimates on BI RDG Result

Indonesia’s macro backdrop is turning more supportive for equities. Domestic inflation remains contained within BI’s target range, reinforcing price stability and providing room for monetary easing. Recent Bank Indonesia's 25bps cut of BI7DRR is signaling confidence in both growth prospects and rupiah stability.

BI 7 Days Repo Rate

Together, these dynamics—stable inflation, easing domestic rates, and potential Fed easing—create a favorable environment for the Indonesian stock market (JCI), particularly for rate-sensitive sectors such as banking, property, and consumer staples, which tend to benefit first from lower financing costs and stronger liquidity. In our view, it is better to remain invested amid the upcoming sentiments that can shower JCI with huge inflow.