Global markets are entering a key positioning window following the September FOMC meeting, with the Fed delivering a 25bp rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, marking its first rate increase in more than three years. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted that inflation remains too high and has persisted for too long, with the recent rise in global oil prices amid the Iran war adding to inflationary pressure. The decision reinforces a higher-for-longer rate environment, which could keep pressure on global liquidity, the USD, and risk assets broadly, while leaving room for further hikes if inflation remains elevated.

The nearer-term event for Indonesian equities is the 18 September index rebalancing, although its impact is expected to remain concentrated in a handful of names rather than the broader market:

• GDX / GDXJ (VanEck Gold Miners, tracking MarketVector indices) — effective at Friday's close, 18 September. Final review results were announced on 11 September, with Indonesian gold names remaining in the indices but subject to weight adjustments.
• FTSE / FTSE Shariah — changes from the quarterly GEIS review will be announced after Friday's close and become effective from Monday's open, 21 September.

For the affected gold names, the flows could still be meaningful, with weight adjustments potentially translating into passive inflows in the tens of millions of dollars for names such as AMMN and BRMS, equivalent to several days of normal trading volume. For the broader market, however, we see this as a narrow, technical event rather than a broad directional driver. The impact should therefore be relatively short-lived and concentrated around the Friday and Monday closes, with limited read-through to the overall market direction.

We expect investors to remain in wait-and-see mode, with positioning likely to stay cautious as markets digest the Fed's hike and approach the upcoming index changes.