Markets now see about an 86% chance the Fed will cut rates at its September 2025 meeting, with big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expecting multiple cuts to follow. Some economists still warn inflation and a solid job market could delay easing.
 
If rates are cut, mortgage costs may edge lower—though not always immediately—boosting buyer demand and possibly pushing home prices higher, especially where supply is tight. Over time, lower rates could unlock more inventory as owners feel freer to sell, and encourage new home construction. At the very least, it would create more catalyst for property company share prices to go higher.
 
Meanwhile, CTRA reported 2Q25 net profit of IDR 575bn (+5% YoY, -13% QoQ), exceeding expectations, supported by robust real estate revenue of Rp2.6 trillion (+20% YoY). Gross margin, however, eased to 44% from 47% in 2Q24, reflecting margin pressure in the healthcare segment as the new Surabaya hospital remains in its ramp-up phase.

For 1H25, earnings rose 20% YoY to IDR 1.2tn, surpassing estimates (54% of our forecast; 59% of consensus), driven by solid real estate revenue of IDR 4.7tn (+21% YoY).
 
Marketing sales reached IDR 2.6tn in 2Q25 (-7% YoY, -18% QoQ), weighed by softer housing and land lot sales in Greater Jakarta and Surabaya. Nevertheless, 1H25 sales of IDR5.7tn (-6% YoY) achieved 52% of the FY25 target, underpinned by strong growth in Greater Jakarta (+13% YoY) and Surabaya (+8% YoY).

The government’s extension of the 100% PPNDTP incentive until end-2025 underpins CTRA’s outlook, with IDR 1.9tn (33% of total sales) already booked under the scheme. The incentive is expected to further enhance affordability and sustain buyer sentiment.
We reiterate our BUY rating with a target price of Rp1,765, implying 1.3x P/BV and 15.9x P/E. CTRA’s diversified project portfolio, strong brand positioning, and high-potential joint operation schemes continue to support its long-term growth prospects. It remains one of our top picks in the residential property sector.