Indonesia’s inflation rose to 2.37% YoY in July 2025, slightly above expectations, driven mainly by higher food prices, especially rice.

Core inflation stayed low at 2.32%, showing weak consumer spending.

With inflation still within BI’s 1.5–3.5% target and demand remaining soft, BI is expected to keep rates steady in August and likely to cut by 50 bps in 4Q25 to boost growth.

When the rate cut happens, the property sector is likely to benefit. Our previous sales note discussed CTRA, now we will discuss BSDE.

BSDE posted 2Q25 net profit of Rp967bn (+8% YoY, +202% QoQ), driven by strong real estate revenue recognition of Rp3.2tn (+5% YoY, +41% QoQ).

This marked a solid quarterly rebound, although 1H25 earnings of Rp6.4tn (-13% YoY) were slightly below expectations (44% of our FY25 forecast; 48% of consensus) due to seasonally soft 1Q25 performance and higher operating costs.

Marketing sales reached Rp2.7tn in 2Q25 (+1% YoY, +9% QoQ), supported by Rp507bn in JV land plot sales to Mitbana, strong land plot sales of Rp617bn (+317% YoY), and shophouse sales of Rp513bn (+43% YoY).
 

This brought 1H25 marketing sales to Rp5.1tn (+5% YoY), in line with management guidance, with notable contributions from Elyon at Eonna (52% take-up) and Asterra Business Park (82% take-up).

The company’s growth outlook is underpinned by premium developments, including a high-end residential project in Kota Wisata Cibubur with Sinarmas Land HK and the upcoming “Nava Park 2” with Astra Land, expected to launch late 2025 or early 2026.

Additionally, the government’s extension of the 100% PPNDTP incentive until end-2025, covering units priced up to Rp5bn with VAT exemption on the first Rp2bn, should accelerate handovers and revenue recognition.

We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of Rp1,375, implying 0.6x P/BV and 13.5x P/E.