July 28, 2025

Earnings Season Just Landed. Buckle Up!

Market Commentary

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The market’s entering its favorite drama series: earnings season. Where every quarter tells a new story, and not all the characters make it to the next episode. It’s still early, but the vibes are shifting. Investors are starting to zoom in on results, looking for clues on who’s actually delivering and who’s just riding sentiment.

Across the Street, everyone’s got a take. Some are calling for solid beats, others are bracing for lowered guidance and cautious tones. Some see this as a quarter of resilience. Others are preparing for disappointments.

Our analysts? They’re staying selective. No need to chase the noise, but there are opportunities out there, if you know where to look.

We start with the banking sector, often a macro barometer. Our analysts expect earnings to see minimal changes this quarter, reflecting muted loan growth and the absence of strong top-line drivers. The key variable this quarter is provisioning. With several banks undergoing management changes, this could be the first glimpse into new strategic directions. If provisions hold steady, earnings likely remain flat. But if management opts to front-load provisioning as part of a reset, earnings may come in softer, providing critical insight into how each bank is positioning for 2H25.

Shifting to industrials, one name has already delivered: AKRA posted strong results, in line with our analysts’ constructive view. The recent land handover to Golden Elephant is starting to contribute, fuel distribution remains resilient, and although the chemical segment faces challenges, the overall setup looks healthy.

In metals and mining, the outlook is mixed. Nickel names are expected to deliver weaker results as prices continue to drag on performance. But one exception may be ANTAM. Unlike most peers, they sell nickel ore, and that niche has seen prices quietly trending higher. That could give them a relative edge this quarter.

Meanwhile, coal players are feeling the pressure from falling benchmark prices (ICI), leading to softer top-line performance across the board. Names like BUMI, INDY, and AADI are expected to report lower earnings, but some margin improvement is likely thanks to royalty reductions, which began to show impact in Q2. One standout is DEWA, whose latest report shows a strong beat, driven by higher operational efficiency and margin improvement thanks to new heavy equipment in operation.

And then there's gold, where momentum is building. With prices rallying, our analysts have an upbeat view and BRMS is one name that could surprise to the upside. Production is scaling, costs are under control, and if the gold rally holds, BRMS could carry that strength into the second half.

With that in mind, several names have started to stand out.
AKRA delivered strong results, validating earlier expectations and showing solid momentum in fuel distribution and land monetization.
DEWA posted a clear beat, supported by efficiency gains and new equipment impact.
BRMS, meanwhile, stands to benefit from rising gold prices and production upside heading into the next phase of the cycle.

This earnings season may reward names with improving fundamentals, operational leverage, and sector tailwinds and these three check multiple boxes.

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