July 02, 2025
From Uncertainty to Opportunity in 2H25

Market Commentary
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After a cautious start to the year due to global financial uncertainty and geopolitical issues, the outlook for the second half of 2025 is looking more positive.

Indonesia’s stock market is in a good position, helped by better global liquidity, stable economic conditions at home, and growth in certain sectors.

One of the big concerns globally is the oversupply of U.S. government bonds.
 

This has led to talk that the U.S. central bank (the Fed) might restart money-printing programs like quantitative easing (QE) or take other steps to lower bond yields.

If that happens, it could boost global financial markets and bring more foreign money into emerging markets like Indonesia.
 

A stable U.S. dollar and lower global bond yields would also make Indonesia more attractive to global investors.

At home, Indonesia’s economy remains strong.

Inflation is under control, the rupiah is stable, and the government is focused on increasing consumer spending through various programs.


Stimulus and reforms rolled out earlier this year are expected to help company earnings recover in the second half.

Sucor Sekuritas has set a target for the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) at 8,177 within 12 months, which means about 18% growth potential from today’s level.

Over the next five years, they see the index reaching 11,834.

This forecast is based on expectations of lower inflation, a more supportive U.S. interest rate policy, and continued strength in Indonesia’s economy.
 

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