Global markets are heading into a crucial week, with investors focused on Nvidia’s Q2 earnings. Nvidia reports on August 26, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote on August 28 could provide key clues on the Fed’s policy direction ahead of the September meeting. With September rate expectations still uncertain, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to any shift in Fed messaging.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s commodity sector received a timely policy boost, after the government confirmed that coal and nickel will not face export duties or windfall taxes in 2026. The move removes a key near-term policy overhang and should support margins and cash flow for commodity producers, particularly while commodity prices remain relatively elevated.

The government still has other avenues to raise revenue, including higher coal production under the revised 2026 RKAB, while RAPBN 2027 targets Rp26.83tn in export-duty revenue, with CPO expected to remain a key contributor. While the 2026 outlook is supportive, the 2027 policy framework remains the key uncertainty to monitor.

Indonesia’s 2026 nickel RKAB is expected at around 260–270mn wmt, significantly below the 379mn wmt recorded in 2025. The tighter quota should help contain supply growth and provide a more supportive backdrop for nickel prices.

We continue to favor MBMA as our preferred nickel exposure. The combination of tighter domestic nickel supply, no export duty or windfall tax in 2026, and continued downstream expansion creates a constructive setup for earnings and cash flow. MBMA’s integrated nickel operations position the company to benefit from improving nickel fundamentals, while the removal of near-term fiscal risks provides additional support to margins.