Renewed market attention is building around KIJA today, as speculation around Indonesia's booming data-center sector gains traction — the stock surged sharply in response, with investors drawing a connection to KIJA's Cikarang industrial estate, which already offers the land, power, water, and connectivity that data-center operators need. A completed land sale to a data-center company back in 2025 lends some credibility to the narrative, but it's worth being clear: this is speculative interest, not a confirmed new catalyst or announcement from the company itself.

The opportunity, if it materializes, extends beyond one-off land sales — a growing data-center tenant base could generate recurring income from power, water, and estate management, aligning with KIJA's broader strategy of building out its recurring infrastructure revenue base.

That speculative rally sits in sharp contrast to what the company's actual latest quarterly numbers show — a period marked by a net loss, softer revenue on delayed land handovers, and earnings distorted by one-off refinancing charges, though underlying profitability remained positive once those items are excluded.

Marketing sales progress against the full-year target has been modest so far, though momentum picked up quarter-on-quarter, and we expect further acceleration in the second half supported by KIJA's Cikarang and Kendal land pipeline. Power-segment margins weakened due to a billing dispute that's expected to resolve soon, while cash flow and gearing metrics softened as well.

Given the mixed fundamentals, we've trimmed our earnings forecasts and lowered our target price, while maintaining our BUY rating on KIJA's deep undervaluation. The disconnect is the key thing to flag to clients: today's move is a speculative re-rating on an unconfirmed narrative, layered on top of a company still working through weaker near-term earnings and land-handover delays. Whether the data-center thesis has legs will depend on real transactions, not today's price action alone.