Indonesia’s nickel story is starting to shift. The government is keeping 2026 RKAB at around 260–270mn tons, well below the 379mn tons realized in 2025. At the same time, domestic consumption has already reached 142.96mn tons through July, while additional quotas are expected to be granted selectively to smelters facing raw material shortages.

Prices are starting to respond. Nickel HMA for 2H August rose 1.9% to US$16,960/t, from US$16,646/t previously. While this does not yet mean the market is tight, it suggests pricing is starting to find support as Indonesia takes a more disciplined approach to supply.
 

This makes MBMA an interesting name to watch. MBMA is entering a higher-volume phase, with our analyst projecting nickel ore sales of around 60mn wmt by 2028F, from 25mn wmt in 2026F. With nickel mining and RKEF also making up a significant part of MBMA’s valuation, higher nickel prices could become increasingly relevant to its earnings outlook.
 

So, the story is not just higher nickel prices, but higher prices coming alongside higher volumes. If Indonesia maintains supply discipline and MBMA’s ramp-up progresses as expected, stronger nickel pricing could provide an additional earnings kicker. This makes the current nickel momentum increasingly relevant for MBMA.