Over the past six months, BMRI and BBNI's share prices have both performing underpressure, reflecting sustained investor caution toward Indonesia’s big-cap banks. In the past month, BMRI’s share price declined by 7.36%, while BBNI dropped even more sharply by 8.69%, both significantly worse than the sector’s -3.96% and the industry’s -2.80%.
The 3-month performance was also weak. BMRI fell by 5.58%, and BBNI by 3.30%, underperforming the sector average of +0.97%. This suggests that despite some signs of macro stabilization, investor sentiment toward these banks remains fragile.
Over a 6-month period, the trend continues: BMRI recorded a sharp -13.86% decline, while BBNI lost 5.75%. Both stocks trailed behind the broader banking sector (-4.54%) and industry index (-3.18%), indicating market concerns over their earnings outlook, loan growth slowdown, and margin pressures.
Banks Historical Performance
For the first five months of the year, BMRI and BBNI posted flat earnings—
BMRI saw a marginal net profit increase of just 0.1% YoY, while BBNI reported a 1% decline. Both BMRI and BBNI are navigating a challenging operating environment in early 2025, with strikingly similar themes emerging in their latest performance. The muted results reflect common pressures across the sector:
rising funding costs, ongoing NIM compression, and disappointing loan growth.
Loan disbursement has stalled for both institutions.
BMRI reported 0% YTD loan growth, falling well short of its 10–12% full-year target. Likewise,
BBNI's loans contracted by
1%, also missing its 8–10% target. This sluggish performance stems from persistent weak demand in both the business and consumer segments, exacerbated by tight system liquidity.
Higher-cost funding—particularly the shift toward time deposits—has continued to
weigh on NIMs, prompting expectations of
downward revisions to both loan growth and margin guidance. Credit costs, while still relatively low, are either edging higher or expected to normalize in the second half of the year. BMRI's credit cost remained at
0.7%, with upward pressure anticipated, while BBNI's ticked up to
0.9%, in line with expectations.
With tight liquidity and soft business and consumer sentiment expected to persist, our analyst have
revised down the earnings forecasts for both banks. BMRI’s 2025 earnings are now projected to
fall slightly by 0.3% YoY, while BBNI’s are expected to decline
1.7%. Despite the near-term challenges,
some valuation support remains, particularly for BBNI, which offers a potential 8% dividend yield and is trading near its forward -1SD PBV band.
In response to these headwinds,
we maintain BUY call on BMRI and BBNI with a lower TP of IDR 6,370, implying 1.7x 2025-26F PB and TP of IDR 5,200, implying 1.1x 2025-26F PB.
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