Bank Indonesia surprised the market by raising the BI Rate by 25bps to 5.50%, ahead of its scheduled June 17–18 policy meeting. The move reflects the central bank’s growing focus on stabilizing the rupiah amid heightened global uncertainty and persistent pressure on emerging market currencies. The policy decision was well received by investors, helping to ease concerns over currency volatility and reinforcing confidence that policymakers remain committed to preserving macroeconomic stability. Following the announcement, the rupiah responded positively and managed to stabilize near the Rp18,000/USD level.
 

The improvement in sentiment quickly spilled over into the equity market. The JCI surged 7.57% to close at 5,746.65, marking one of its strongest daily performances in recent periods. The rally was largely driven by conglomerate-related stocks, particularly TPIA, BRPT, and CUAN, which attracted significant buying interest after experiencing substantial corrections over the past few months.

In our view, the recent weakness in these names was primarily driven by technical factors following their removal from MSCI indices rather than any meaningful deterioration in fundamentals. In fact, operational performance, earnings growth, and cash flow generation across these companies have continued to improve significantly. The MSCI rebalancing created a rare disconnect between market price and intrinsic value, allowing investors to gain exposure to high-quality assets at valuations that would likely not have been available under normal market conditions.

Looking ahead, market narratives are gradually shifting from index-related selling pressure toward improving corporate fundamentals. As sentiment continues to normalize and investors regain confidence, we believe a broader market recovery could emerge. In such a scenario, high-beta stocks with strong liquidity, improving earnings, and solid business quality are likely to lead the rebound. Given their sharp correction, attractive valuations, and improving fundamentals, TPIA, BREN, and CUAN remain well positioned to benefit from a recovery in risk appetite and a potential reversal in the broader Indonesian equity market.