Indonesia’s trade balance remained in surplus at US$0.09bn in April 2026, extending the country’s long-running streak of trade surpluses. However, the figure declined sharply from US$3.32bn in March and came in well below market expectations, signaling a meaningful weakening in external sector support. Although exports continued to grow strongly by 21.98% YoY, a larger increase in imports of 22.49% YoY nearly erased the surplus. The latest data suggests that Indonesia’s external position is becoming increasingly sensitive to domestic demand recovery and shifts in global commodity markets.
 

The sharp rise in imports was driven by the normalization of economic activity following the Eid holiday period, stronger demand for imported goods and raw materials, and higher energy imports amid rising global oil prices. At the same time, rupiah weakness has increased demand for U.S. dollars to finance imports. Looking ahead, trade surplus momentum could remain under pressure if key export commodities such as coal, CPO, and nickel fail to sustain recent price gains. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the proposed export agency may create temporary disruptions during the transition period and weigh on export activity.
 

On the inflation front, conditions are moving in the opposite direction. Inflation accelerated to 3.08% YoY in May 2026 from 2.42% YoY in April, driven primarily by higher food prices and resilient consumption during the holiday season. Core inflation also rose to 2.59% YoY, indicating that domestic demand remains relatively healthy despite ongoing global uncertainties. Meanwhile, adjustments to non-subsidized fuel prices at the beginning of May added further pressure to consumer prices, reinforcing signs that inflationary pressures are becoming more broad-based.

Looking ahead, inflation risks appear tilted to the upside. Potential fuel price adjustments, rising energy costs, and tighter supply conditions across several commodities could keep inflation elevated throughout 2H26. Combined with a narrowing trade surplus, this creates a less favorable macro backdrop, as weaker external balances reduce support for the rupiah while higher inflation limits room for monetary easing. As a result, market attention is likely to remain focused on rupiah stability, inflation dynamics, and the policy response from Bank Indonesia in the coming months.