May 20, 2025
Shine Bright Like Gold

Market Commentary
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On Friday, May 16, 2025, Moody’s officially downgraded the U.S. credit rating from ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’.

At first glance, it might just seem like a letter change, but this is a serious warning: US’ financial health is now being questioned.

The impact? Gold prices jumped immediately!
But…. before we dive into the gold rally, let’s take a look at the backdrop.

U.S. Treasuries, once considered the safest place to park your money, are now being quietly avoided by investors.

Recent data shows that foreign investors are losing interest in U.S. Treasuries. Their holdings have stagnated, even declined.

 


What does that mean?
Foreign investors are slowly pulling out.

Look at China, their U.S. Treasury holdings keep dropping.

 


They’re asking themselves: Why hold on to U.S. government bonds that are losing their top credit rating and come with rising risks?

With global uncertainty and the U.S. debt burden ballooning, this downgrade is a wake-up call.

The old idea of “safe haven” has changed.
Now, more investors are asking: Is it still worth holding Treasuries?

And increasingly, the answer is: Gold is the new safe haven.

Gold prices are climbing steadily, demand remains strong, and most importantly, unlike dollars, gold can’t just be printed at will.

 


In today’s world of geopolitical turmoil and lingering inflation, gold is shining again, literally.

So, what stocks should we buy? INDY and ANTM are our top picks.

Let’s keep it short:

For INDY, if gold prices break through USD 3,000/ounce while its AISC stays around USD 1,200/ounce and tax is roughly 10%, then the profit margin will be way bigger than coal.

 



As for ANTM, the story is right in front of us. Antam’s boutiques are packed, like people lining up for free goods, haha, even though the gold isn’t cheap.

Some outlets in Jakarta have even run out of 2-gram gold bars and above.

ANTM is expanding its production capacity and is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing uptrend in gold prices.

We project ANTM’s net profit to reach IDR 5.0–5.8 tn in 2025–2026, growing +30% and +16% yoy respectively.

 


So we recommend a BUY for both stocks:
  • INDY target price: IDR 3,100
  • ANTM target price: IDR 2,700

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