May 26, 2025
All Good Things Take Time

Market Commentary
0 comments
Good news for those still holding AADI!

FTSE Russell has just announced the results of its global index review, and AADI has officially been included in the small cap category, while DAAZ is now listed under micro cap.

This means both stocks are now on the radar of global investors who track FTSE indices, and that’s no small matter!

For AADI, this could be a real game changer.
Why? Because over the past month, AADI has still been seeing net foreign selling.

 


But here's the catch: AADI’s stock price has gone up even without any net foreign buying yet.
 


Just imagine what could happen once the foreign inflow starts coming in, it could be a major boost and a powerful fuel for the stock price to rise even higher.

There’s also another important catalyst: coal prices are starting to rise again, which could be another tailwind for AADI.

 


Even when coal selling prices dropped recently, AADI showed solid operational resilience.

Sales volume still managed to grow 3% yoy to 16.4 mn tons, while production only declined slightly by 3% yoy to 16.0 mn tons.

This clearly shows that demand remains strong, and AADI remains efficient even in a less favorable market environment.

 


Now, with coal prices trending up again, AADI’s outlook is looking even more attractive.

Especially since AADI is also benefiting from the revised coal royalty structure in Indonesia, which lowers the royalty rate for exports priced above USD 120/ton, from 28% to 19%.

Assuming this new rate stays in place for the remaining three quarters of 2025, AADI’s estimated profit could rise to around USD 900 mn, which is 5.2% higher than the previous projection and relatively stable compared to FY24 profit (+1% yoy).

 


This structural advantage will strengthen AADI’s margins going forward, and when combined with the potential inflows from FTSE inclusion and rising coal prices, it’s a powerful combo.

With all these catalysts in place, we maintain our BUY recommendation on AADI, with a target price of IDR 30,100.

Comments


Contact Us
We are happy to answer any questions you may have
Address
Sahid Sudirman Center
Jalan Jend. Sudirman Kav.86, Lantai 12
Karet Tengsin, RT.10/RW.11
Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta
10220